Is the Number of Papers on a Topic a Good Indicator of its Importance?

The Wikipedia entry on “Global Cooling” dismisses the idea that it was the prevailing view in the 1970’s by showing the numbers of papers on cooling versus the number on warming. Does this truly support the author’s claim?

In this post, I describe a fictitious experiment and then draw up a non-complete list of papers that could be produced from the experiment.

I then show a real-life example of this sort of “paper-churning”.

Fictitious Experiment

The University of Northwest East Chicago (which does not exist) set up an experiment which was run for five years. The experiment consisted of three stations monitoring CO2 levels in the atmosphere. The stations were located in Elkhart, Ind., 150 km east of Chicago, Dixon, Ill., 150 km west and Attica, Ind., 150 km south.

Here is a list of the papers which were presented at various conferences:

1. Diurnal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
2. Diurnal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
3. Diurnal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
4. Seasonal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
5. Seasonal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
6. Seasonal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
7. Correlation between Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind. and Dixon, Ill.
8. Correlation between Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind. and Attica, Ind.
9. Correlation between Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind. and Dixon, Ill.
10. Correlation between Temperature in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
11. Correlation between Temperature in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
12. Correlation between Temperature in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
13. Correlation between Surface Wind Direction in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
14. Correlation between Surface Wind Direction in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
15. Correlation between Surface Wind Direction in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
16. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Winter and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
17. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Winter and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
18. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Winter and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
19. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Summer and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
20. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Summer and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
21. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Summer and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
22. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Spring and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
23. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Spring and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
24. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Spring and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
25. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Fall and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
26. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Fall and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
27. Correlation between Position of Jetstream in Fall and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
28. Correlation between Electricity Use in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Elkhart, Ind.
29. Correlation between Electricity Use in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Dixon, Ill.
30. Correlation between Electricity Use in Chicago and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at Attica, Ind.
31. Long Term Trends in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration at Elkhart, Ind.
32. Long Term Trends in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration at Dixon, Ill.
33. Long Term Trends in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration at Attica, Ind.
34. Comparison of Diurnal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration at Elkhart, Ind., Dixon, Ill. and Attica, Ind.
35. Comparison of Seasonal Variations in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration at Elkhart, Ind., Dixon, Ill. and Attica, Ind.
36. Comparison of Long Term Trends in Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration at Elkhart, Ind., Dixon, Ill. and Attica, Ind.

Then there are unlimited opportunities for collaboration with other experiments. For example:

1. Comparison of Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at three Chicago locations and Mauna Loa
2. Comparison of Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations at three Chicago locations and NASA Satellite Temperature Data

Real Life Example

Here are some Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) examples from the University of Oklahoma/Sonatrach:

1. SPE 63164 Comparison of Vertical and Horizontal wells in Gas-Condensate Reservoirs
2. SPE 65504 Performance of Horizontal wells in Gas-Condensate Reservoirs, Djebel Beisa Field, Algeria
3. SPE 80899 Effect of Gas Recycling on the Enhancement of Condensate Recovery in Toual Field Algeria. A Case Study.
4. SPE 100753 Performance of Horizontal wells in Gas Condensate Reservoirs: Hassi R’Mel Field Algeria
5. SPE 104040 Effect of Gas Recycling on the Enhancement of Condensate Recovery. Case Study Hassi R’Mel Field, Algeria

 

Note that SPE 63164 and SPE 65504 are identical, except for the title. They were presented at different conferences. None of these papers was in any way noteworthy. There were more, but I stopped looking at them

 

FULL DISCLOSURE: Personal Peeve – SPE rejected a number of abstracts I had submitted but accepted this rubbish