A Possible Solution for Peace in Ukraine

The latest peace talks in Ukraine collapsed after two hours. The discussion currently focuses on the part of western Donetsk which is currently under Ukrainian control. Russia insists on annexing the area. Some ideas to make this more palatable for the Ukrainians include making the area a demilitarized zone (with the security provided by Russian police and border guards) or a “free trade area” (whatever that means).

These proposals are unacceptable to Ukraine. Zelensky rightly complains that Trump is pushing for Ukraine to make concessions but demands no concessions from Russia.

A concept that has not been raised is the idea of swapping western Donetsk for some of the territory in Zaporizhzia and Kherson oblasts currently under Russian occupation.

This would allow Putin to claim that he has liberated western Donetsk and protected the Russian speakers in that area from the oppression by the “Nazi Kyiv regime”.  At the same time, Ukraine regaining territory in the south could be acceptable to the Ukrainian government and its people.

How much land would be returned to Ukraine is obviously a question of negotiation. Ideally the whole of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts currently under occupation should be a starting point. Negotiations on the area could involve issues like equal pre-war populations or equal pre-war economic output. Another issue would be land access between Russia and Crimea – this could be achieved through a rail and road corridor from Russia to Crimea, similar to the connection between Russia and Kaliningrad in the north.

The other major issue in the peace negotiations is the question of security guarantees for Ukraine. There appears to have been some agreement on this, though Russia insists that there should be no NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. This can be circumvented by having EU troops rather than NATO troops in Ukraine, with a preference for troops from the West of EU such as Spain, Portugal  or Italy and no military presence from East Russia (AKA United States of America).

The Cost of Mass Deportations

Illegal immigration into the US is clearly a major problem. The influx of illegal immigrants has been effectively stopped by vigorous enforcement at the border and no doubt word has spread through Mexico that getting into the US at present is nearly impossible.

 

Nobody seems to have considered the economic effect of deporting the illegal immigrants already in the US.

 

Illegal immigrants are individuals who enter or remain in the United States without proper authorization. The reasons for illegal immigration are varied—ranging from economic opportunity and family reunification to fleeing violence or persecution. The scale of the issue is significant, with estimates suggesting millions living without legal status.

Current estimates of the illegal or unauthorized immigrants currently living in the US range from 9 million to 14 million. The Migration Policy Institute puts the number at 13,738,000. According to the same source, 45% have lived in the US for over 20 years and 9,107,000, over 70% of the over 16 population, are currently employed. 530,000 are unemployed, with the rest not in the workforce.

Those who are gainfully employed are contributing to the economy. Assuming that most are earning at the local minimum wage, which ranges from $7.25 per hour in Texas to $16.90 per hour in California, the average earnings per employee is about $26,000 per year. This estimate takes into account how many immigrants are in each state and what the minimum wage is in that state and that the employment is year round. The contribution to the country’s GDP is not just the earnings of the individuals but also the value of the fruits of that labour plus the multiplying factor as the money earned is circulated through the economy. These factors will at least double the contribution, resulting in each worker contributing $50,000 a year.

9 million workers contributing $50,000 per year is $500 billion annually.  In other words, if all of the illegal immigrants are deported then the GDP of the US will go down by about $500 billion. To this cost we must add the budget of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) budget which currently stands at $28-29 billion annually.

Even in an economy as large as the US (2025 GDP $30.5 trillion) such a loss will be significant. Deporting all illegal immigrants is clearly not an effective technique to “Make America Great Again”.

 

The answer has to be to be selective in who is deported and who is awarded Americans US citizenship or provided with a route towards US citizenship or simply permission to stay and work in the US without citizenship.

 

Selecting which immigrants to be allowed to stay is complex. Some situations, such as someone who has been in the US for a certain time (perhaps 10 years) is working, is paying taxes (hence contributing to the economy) and has no criminal record should clearly be fast tracked towards citizenship. Similarly the so-called “dreamers” who were brought into the US illegally by their parents when they were underage and have lived all their lives in the US should also be fast tracked for citizenship. Illegal immigrants who have a criminal record or are in jail or belong to a criminal organization should be deported as quickly as possible. In between these extremes the issue becomes much more difficult. A point system could be devised and based on that illegal residents could be classed in one of several categories with different treatment.

 

Of course, those being given US citizenship would have to be given a presidential pardon. For some, this would be tantamount to “rewarding crime”. However, illegal immigration is a victimless crime.  If the January 6th insurgents could be given a pardon, then surely a peaceful group like the immigrants, who are contributing to the US, can also be pardoned.

 

A more worrying development could be a “moral hazard”. These actions could be perceived as an invitation – if you can sneak into the US and stay clean for 10 years, you get citizenship automatically. However with the border effectively closed and employers made responsible that their employees are legal residents, the recurrence of such immigration can be controlled.

Trump’s Epithany on the Road to the UN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On September 23rd, 2025, Trump stunned the world with a post on Truth Social which stated: “After seeing the Economic trouble (the war) is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” This statement is a considerable boost to the morale of Ukrainians and their supporters.

Previously his attitude to Ukraine was that “Russia held all the cards”.  However, the new statement signifies a retreat by the US from Ukraine.

The key requirement for Ukraine’s success lies in securing an adequate supply of weapons and ammunition. If war is like a game of poker, now is the time for Europe to go “ALL IN”.

    • The Europeans have depleted their stockpiles of weapons and ammunition but retain what they need for their own defence. However, their best defence is to halt the Russians in Ukraine. The countries of Europe (plus Canada) could live with reduced stockpiles until production is ramped up sufficiently.
    • The European states are already undergoing a massive increase in defence procurement. However, it takes time for production to ramp up sufficiently, so the question becomes can Ukraine survive without US help for long enough for European materiel to be delivered.
    • Buy US weapons which the Europeans don’t produce, in particular the Patriot system, ATACMS missiles and HIMARS systems.

To recapture the invaded territories, Ukraine should:

    • Stabilise the current frontline.
    • Continue with the attacks on Russian military targets, oil refineries and crude oil export facilities in Russia with long range missiles and drones
    • Focus should be the “southern land bridge” between Crimea and Donbas. Cutting supplies to this area using long range missiles and drones could force a Russian retreat.
    • Destroy the Kerch bridge with long range missiles with large warheads (e.g. new UKrainain “Flamingo” missiles), isolating Crimea from any supplies. Potentially leading to its abandonment by
    • Liberating Luhansk and Donetsk would be more challenging due to their long border with Russia. However Ukrainian ingenuity should provide solutions.

This strategy might force the Russians to sue for peace, resulting in an independent Ukraine with a strong military deterrent. This process may take 1-2 years.

Alternatively, a prolonged war of attrition could see Russia strengthening its military and eventually breaking through Ukrainian defence lines. Ukraine would then be unable to stop Russia conquering all of Ukraine. This would be followed by executions (see Katyn, 1940), mass deportations (see Crimean Tatars, 1944) and a policy of aggressive Russification. Ukraine, both the state and the culture, would cease to exist.

 

Scary Russian Influence in the Trump Administration

Scary Russian Influence in the Trump Administration

The London Sunday Times published a story “Vladimir Putin’s sway over the US is even worse than you think”. Written by Dominic Lawson, who writes columns for The Sunday Times and the Daily Mail. I.e. he is not a noisy Radio talk-show host spreading populist conspiracy theories, mis-information and dis-information.

I think his article needs wider readership. I have extracted some elements from the article here, with some edits for brevity, (the extracts are printed in itallics). The full article can be found here:

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/vladimir-putins-sway-over-the-us-is-even-worse-than-you-think-c9ck3sst5

About Tulsi Gabbard

Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard posted in the aftermath of the Oval Office fracas between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in February.   She Posted: “Zelensky has been trying to drag the United States into a nuclear war with Russia/WW3 for years now”.

When Trump nominated her as director of intelligence, Rossiya-1, the main state TV channel, claimed her as a “comrade”.

But who put the idea in Trump’s mind that she was the woman for the top intelligence job? The name mentioned is George O’Neill Jr. He had promoted Gabbard for many years.

O’Neill had a personal Russian connection. This was Maria Butina, now a member of Putin’s party in the Duma, who lived in Washington until she was convicted in 2018 of being an unregistered agent of the Kremlin. One of her close contacts …  was revealed by The Wall Street Journal to be O’Neill, described by the paper as “an outspoken advocate of closer ties with Russia”.

About Darren Beattie

… the acting undersecretary for public diplomacy, Darren Beattie (who married a Russian woman in 2021). Beattie has been intimately involved in the shutting-down of the State Department’s counter foreign information manipulation and interference hub, known as R/Fimi. Russian disinformation was at the heart of R/Fimi’s work, but Beattie told staff that the operation was “severely misaligned” with the Trump administration’s policies. Which is certainly true.

Beattie set up a news operation of his own which was determinedly pro-Kremlin. Two months before Putin launched his “SMO”, Beattie wrote: “Imagine the whining from the Globalist American Empire if Putin ‘invades’ Ukraine … I love it when our national security bureaucrats fail!”

Donald Trump

Where the parts on Tulsi Gabbard and Darren Beattie are largely factual, when it comes to Donald Trump, Lawson is much more interpretative.

Trump, though, is much more motivated by personal greed and perceived slights. He has never forgiven Zelensky for refusing to assist him against Hunter Biden.  And Trump has wanted his family’s hotel business to have a foothold in Moscow. Moreover, Russian money kept the Trump Organisation solvent when US and European banks were no longer prepared to lend.

A Just End to the Ukraine War

A Just End to Ukraine War

Anywhere, the only people who have a right to determine the future of their land are the people who live there. This is the basis of the principle of “self-determination”.

In the case of Ukraine, this principle implies that only the people living there have the right which parts should be Ukraine and which should go to Russia.

The only way to determine this justly is through a plebiscite.

Continue reading “A Just End to the Ukraine War”

Greta Thunberg was Wrong about Economic Growth

In a speech, Greta Thunberg stated: “all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth”. Continue reading “Greta Thunberg was Wrong about Economic Growth”

The Role of Protests in a Democracy

INTRODUCTION

 

 

 

 

 

There is currently a public enquiry in Canada examining whether the invocation of the Emergencies Act to end the “Trucker’s Freedom Protest” in Ottawa last year was legally justified. This protest was to force the government to end the vaccination mandate for truckers crossing the border to the U.S. It lasted from Jan. 28 to Feb. 20. The police did not intervene effectively until the Canadian Parliament invoked the Emergencies Act and the protest was dispersed.

This raises general questions about protests in democracies. Continue reading “The Role of Protests in a Democracy”

Merry Christmas 2020

Christmas is here!

Nowadays, it is seen largely as a consumption holiday, whether it is consuming turkey with all the trimmings or shopping for presents. However, for Christians the world over, it is celebrating the birth of Jesus Christ. The essence of Christianity is following the teachings of Christ

Adoration of the Shepherds – signed b.r.: G v Honthorst.fe 1622

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am constantly surprised by how many people in the West do not know what those teachings are.

Christmas provides an opportunity to remind people of some of these: Continue reading “Merry Christmas 2020”

What is 1 + 1? It depends who you ask!

Donald Trump

By Shealah Craighead - White House, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63768460
Official portrait of President Donald J. Trump, Friday, By Shealah Craighead – White House, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63768460

“Glad you asked me this question. I am a very stable genius and math is one of my specialties. When I was on the Howard Stern show, he asked me a very difficult math question, “What is 17 times 6?”.

 

Continue reading “What is 1 + 1? It depends who you ask!”

The Killing of Breonna Taylor is Not About Systemic Racism – It’s Much Deeper Than That.

Breonna Taylor, a young black woman, was shot and killed by the police in Louisville, Kentucky. Ms. Taylor was a front-line worker at a hospital and had no police record. Street protests started immediately and all pundits claimed this was another case of systemic racism by the police.

However, many aspects of the case raise questions. Many of these have not been answered in the press.

Starting with the facts. This is made difficult since there are conflicting reports and there are indications that there is a lot of genuine fake news (as opposed to Trump’s “fake news”)

Continue reading “The Killing of Breonna Taylor is Not About Systemic Racism – It’s Much Deeper Than That.”