Tag: Ukraine

A Possible Solution for Peace in Ukraine

The latest peace talks in Ukraine collapsed after two hours. The discussion currently focuses on the part of western Donetsk which is currently under Ukrainian control. Russia insists on annexing the area. Some ideas to make this more palatable for the Ukrainians include making the area a demilitarized zone (with the security provided by Russian police and border guards) or a “free trade area” (whatever that means).

These proposals are unacceptable to Ukraine. Zelensky rightly complains that Trump is pushing for Ukraine to make concessions but demands no concessions from Russia.

A concept that has not been raised is the idea of swapping western Donetsk for some of the territory in Zaporizhzia and Kherson oblasts currently under Russian occupation.

This would allow Putin to claim that he has liberated western Donetsk and protected the Russian speakers in that area from the oppression by the “Nazi Kyiv regime”.  At the same time, Ukraine regaining territory in the south could be acceptable to the Ukrainian government and its people.

How much land would be returned to Ukraine is obviously a question of negotiation. Ideally the whole of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts currently under occupation should be a starting point. Negotiations on the area could involve issues like equal pre-war populations or equal pre-war economic output. Another issue would be land access between Russia and Crimea – this could be achieved through a rail and road corridor from Russia to Crimea, similar to the connection between Russia and Kaliningrad in the north.

The other major issue in the peace negotiations is the question of security guarantees for Ukraine. There appears to have been some agreement on this, though Russia insists that there should be no NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. This can be circumvented by having EU troops rather than NATO troops in Ukraine, with a preference for troops from the West of EU such as Spain, Portugal  or Italy and no military presence from East Russia (AKA United States of America).

Trump’s Epithany on the Road to the UN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On September 23rd, 2025, Trump stunned the world with a post on Truth Social which stated: “After seeing the Economic trouble (the war) is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” This statement is a considerable boost to the morale of Ukrainians and their supporters.

Previously his attitude to Ukraine was that “Russia held all the cards”.  However, the new statement signifies a retreat by the US from Ukraine.

The key requirement for Ukraine’s success lies in securing an adequate supply of weapons and ammunition. If war is like a game of poker, now is the time for Europe to go “ALL IN”.

    • The Europeans have depleted their stockpiles of weapons and ammunition but retain what they need for their own defence. However, their best defence is to halt the Russians in Ukraine. The countries of Europe (plus Canada) could live with reduced stockpiles until production is ramped up sufficiently.
    • The European states are already undergoing a massive increase in defence procurement. However, it takes time for production to ramp up sufficiently, so the question becomes can Ukraine survive without US help for long enough for European materiel to be delivered.
    • Buy US weapons which the Europeans don’t produce, in particular the Patriot system, ATACMS missiles and HIMARS systems.

To recapture the invaded territories, Ukraine should:

    • Stabilise the current frontline.
    • Continue with the attacks on Russian military targets, oil refineries and crude oil export facilities in Russia with long range missiles and drones
    • Focus should be the “southern land bridge” between Crimea and Donbas. Cutting supplies to this area using long range missiles and drones could force a Russian retreat.
    • Destroy the Kerch bridge with long range missiles with large warheads (e.g. new UKrainain “Flamingo” missiles), isolating Crimea from any supplies. Potentially leading to its abandonment by
    • Liberating Luhansk and Donetsk would be more challenging due to their long border with Russia. However Ukrainian ingenuity should provide solutions.

This strategy might force the Russians to sue for peace, resulting in an independent Ukraine with a strong military deterrent. This process may take 1-2 years.

Alternatively, a prolonged war of attrition could see Russia strengthening its military and eventually breaking through Ukrainian defence lines. Ukraine would then be unable to stop Russia conquering all of Ukraine. This would be followed by executions (see Katyn, 1940), mass deportations (see Crimean Tatars, 1944) and a policy of aggressive Russification. Ukraine, both the state and the culture, would cease to exist.