Illegal immigration into the US is clearly a major problem. The influx of illegal immigrants has been effectively stopped by vigorous enforcement at the border and no doubt word has spread through Mexico that getting into the US at present is nearly impossible.
Nobody seems to have considered the economic effect of deporting the illegal immigrants already in the US.
Illegal immigrants are individuals who enter or remain in the United States without proper authorization. The reasons for illegal immigration are varied—ranging from economic opportunity and family reunification to fleeing violence or persecution. The scale of the issue is significant, with estimates suggesting millions living without legal status.
Current estimates of the illegal or unauthorized immigrants currently living in the US range from 9 million to 14 million. The Migration Policy Institute puts the number at 13,738,000. According to the same source, 45% have lived in the US for over 20 years and 9,107,000, over 70% of the over 16 population, are currently employed. 530,000 are unemployed, with the rest not in the workforce.
Those who are gainfully employed are contributing to the economy. Assuming that most are earning at the local minimum wage, which ranges from $7.25 per hour in Texas to $16.90 per hour in California, the average earnings per employee is about $26,000 per year. This estimate takes into account how many immigrants are in each state and what the minimum wage is in that state and that the employment is year round. The contribution to the country’s GDP is not just the earnings of the individuals but also the value of the fruits of that labour plus the multiplying factor as the money earned is circulated through the economy. These factors will at least double the contribution, resulting in each worker contributing $50,000 a year.
9 million workers contributing $50,000 per year is $500 billion annually. In other words, if all of the illegal immigrants are deported then the GDP of the US will go down by about $500 billion. To this cost we must add the budget of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) budget which currently stands at $28-29 billion annually.
Even in an economy as large as the US (2025 GDP $30.5 trillion) such a loss will be significant. Deporting all illegal immigrants is clearly not an effective technique to “Make America Great Again”.
The answer has to be to be selective in who is deported and who is awarded Americans US citizenship or provided with a route towards US citizenship or simply permission to stay and work in the US without citizenship.
Selecting which immigrants to be allowed to stay is complex. Some situations, such as someone who has been in the US for a certain time (perhaps 10 years) is working, is paying taxes (hence contributing to the economy) and has no criminal record should clearly be fast tracked towards citizenship. Similarly the so-called “dreamers” who were brought into the US illegally by their parents when they were underage and have lived all their lives in the US should also be fast tracked for citizenship. Illegal immigrants who have a criminal record or are in jail or belong to a criminal organization should be deported as quickly as possible. In between these extremes the issue becomes much more difficult. A point system could be devised and based on that illegal residents could be classed in one of several categories with different treatment.
Of course, those being given US citizenship would have to be given a presidential pardon. For some, this would be tantamount to “rewarding crime”. However, illegal immigration is a victimless crime. If the January 6th insurgents could be given a pardon, then surely a peaceful group like the immigrants, who are contributing to the US, can also be pardoned.
A more worrying development could be a “moral hazard”. These actions could be perceived as an invitation – if you can sneak into the US and stay clean for 10 years, you get citizenship automatically. However with the border effectively closed and employers made responsible that their employees are legal residents, the recurrence of such immigration can be controlled.
