The EU after Brexit – A Vision for Success

Much has been written about the effects of Brexit on the UK, but there has been little thought given to the future of the EU itself.

The problems of the EU are well known. What Europe needs is a Julius Caesar, Charlemagne, Napoleon or a Bismark (or all of them). Angela Merkel showed hints of European leadership, until her disastrous error in allowing unlimited numbers of “refugees” into Germany. Even though there is the lack of leadership, clear common goals and periodic crises, the EU muddles through, in spite of the British press gleefully predicting the imminent break-up of the EU and the collapse of the Euro

Continue reading “The EU after Brexit – A Vision for Success”

Trump’s Achievements

No president has divided public opinion more than Donald Trump. Many find him personally obnoxious, irresponsible and harmful to the U.S. and the world. His supporters however, see him as a breath of fresh air who is “making America great again”.

Personally, I am not an admirer of Trump but I think that it is beneficial to play the “devil’s advocate” and try to look at his record in his first two years in as positive light as possible. Continue reading “Trump’s Achievements”

Indigenous Academics in the Press

The Globe and Mail has published a number of articles by indigenous academics in Canadian Universities and indigenous leaders.

Some of the statements made called out for rebuttal, but the “Comments” section was unavailable or the comments were closed down as “not meeting the G&M’s standards”, most likely due to being deemed racist. Continue reading “Indigenous Academics in the Press”

The Cost of Opposition to Resource Development

The Financial Post identified $129 BILLION of resource projects which are held up by:

  • Environmentalists
  • First Nations

What is the cost to the economy of these delays? In this blog I will try to quantify the cost of this to the Canadian economy (as measured by its GDP) over the next 20 years. Continue reading “The Cost of Opposition to Resource Development”

Get Canada Moving Again – Streamlining the Resource Development Approval Process

In Canada resource development projects must go through a lengthy approval process.  This is necessary so that all the factors are taken into consideration including, of course, environmental concerns.

However, radical environmentalists have used these approval processes to stop all resource developments, whether it involves pipelines, oil and gas development, hard rock mining or forestry.

The Financial Post has identified 35 projects valued at $129 billion that have been held up or stopped by extreme environmental extremists. Continue reading “Get Canada Moving Again – Streamlining the Resource Development Approval Process”

Canada’s 2018 budget: virtue signaling all the way

Canada’s 2018 budget was released on February 26th.  It projects an estimated deficit of $17.8 billion for 2018.  In subsequent years the budget deficit is expected to decrease, but only to $13 billion.

Canada’s economy is currently strong.  Unemployment is at record lows and GDP growth is as high as could be expected.

Conventional Keynesian economics would expect a budget surplus under these conditions.  Admittedly the budget deficit is lower than had been expected a year ago due to the strong economy.  This was seen as a signal for the Trudeau government to increase spending and introduce new programs.

Continue reading “Canada’s 2018 budget: virtue signaling all the way”

The verdict in the Gerald Stanley Case was (probably) Correct

The trial of Gerald Stanley, a farmer in northern Saskatchewan, over the shooting death of Colten Boushie, a 22-year-old Cree from the Red Pheasant First Nations (an Indigenous community) has stirred much discussion, most focused on the alleged racial nature of the events. Stanley was acquitted by the all non-Indigenous jury. This has given rise to protests calling for “Justice for Colten” and a number of politicians, including the Prime Minister, making statements generally critical of the verdict.

Although some of the events that took place are not clear (contradictions in statements by witnesses from both sides), several issues have not been raised publicly:

  • What was Stanley’s frame of mind when he shot Boushie?
  • Was Boushie the innocent young man who wanted to become a firefighter that has been portrayed by the press?
  • What would be the repercussions of a “guilty” verdict?

Continue reading “The verdict in the Gerald Stanley Case was (probably) Correct”

U. S. Tax Reform – Wrong Policies, Wrong Reasons, Wrong Time

The tax reform bills which have recently been passed by the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives potentially introduced significant changes to U.S. tax law.  This has been strongly pushed by Donald Trump. Here is a summary of the changes:

  • Reduce corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%
  • The highest personal tax rate has been reduced
  • Inheritance taxes threshold has been raised from $11.2 million $22.4 million
  • Some tax reductions which affect the middle class, but which expire in 2026

There is no doubt that the U.S. tax system needs reform. Although the corporate tax rate is 35%, in practice, the average tax rate actually paid by U.S. corporations is only 18.7% (by one estimate). The difference is due to all the deductions, exemptions and loopholes embedded in the tax code. Many of these are industry specific and are the result of years of successful lobbying by particular industries. As a result, the tax code introduces distortions in the economy which are not in the best interests of the country.

The tax reform has been sold as a needed stimulus for the economy, which will increase investment, hence increase productivity and lead to increased job creation

The reality is quite different:

  • No need for a stimulus at this time
  • Tax cuts for corporations will not flow into productive investment
  • Changes will raise the deficit by $1.3 trillion over 10 years
  • Tax cuts for individuals will not spur consumption or investment in the U.S.
  • Inheritance tax threshold will have a negligible effect

I shall now expand on these in greater detail. Continue reading “U. S. Tax Reform – Wrong Policies, Wrong Reasons, Wrong Time”

Towards a Rational Approach to Climate Change

To decide how to deal with climate change we have to first look at the affects it will have.  The effects which have been discussed fall into three groups.

These are:

  • Effect on wildlife and the environment
  • More frequent extreme weather events
  • Rising sea levels

My conclusion is that the only aspect that poses a real threat to humanity is a rising sea level.

In this blog I shall look at all three aspects and explain the reasoning behind the conclusion. Continue reading “Towards a Rational Approach to Climate Change”

Are the Predictions of More Hurricanes of Greater Severity Supported by the Data?

One of the dire warnings of the effects of anthropogenic climate change is the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events.

The recent spate of powerful hurricanes which it hit the U.S.  and the Caribbean suggests that perhaps the frequency of hurricanes is increasing as predicted..

The Economist recently published data for hurricanes landing in the U.S. from 1850 onwards.  These data suggested that the number of hurricanes is slowly decreasing while the number of category five hurricanes is slightly increasing.  In this blog I will look at the same data with a little more rigorous analysis.

Continue reading “Are the Predictions of More Hurricanes of Greater Severity Supported by the Data?”