Galactic Hero

A Possible Solution for Peace in Ukraine

The latest peace talks in Ukraine collapsed after two hours. The discussion currently focuses on the part of western Donetsk which is currently under Ukrainian control. Russia insists on annexing the area. Some ideas to make this more palatable for the Ukrainians include making the area a demilitarized zone (with the security provided by Russian police and border guards) or a “free trade area” (whatever that means).

These proposals are unacceptable to Ukraine. Zelensky rightly complains that Trump is pushing for Ukraine to make concessions but demands no concessions from Russia.

A concept that has not been raised is the idea of swapping western Donetsk for some of the territory in Zaporizhzia and Kherson oblasts currently under Russian occupation.

This would allow Putin to claim that he has liberated western Donetsk and protected the Russian speakers in that area from the oppression by the “Nazi Kyiv regime”. At the same time, Ukraine regaining territory in the south could be acceptable to the Ukrainian government and its people.

How much land would be returned to Ukraine is obviously a question of negotiation. Ideally the whole of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts currently under occupation should be a starting point. Negotiations on the area could involve issues like equal pre-war populations or equal pre-war economic output. Another issue would be land access between Russia and Crimea – this could be achieved through a rail and road corridor from Russia to Crimea, similar to the connection between Russia and Kaliningrad in the north.

The other major issue in the peace negotiations is the question of security guarantees for Ukraine. There appears to have been some agreement on this, though Russia insists that there should be no NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. This can be circumvented by having EU troops rather than NATO troops in Ukraine, with a preference for troops from the West of EU such as Spain, Portugal or Italy and no military presence from East Russia (AKA United States of America).

The Cost of Mass Deportations

Illegal immigration into the US is clearly a major problem. The influx of illegal immigrants has been effectively stopped by vigorous enforcement at the border and no doubt word has spread through Mexico that getting into the US at present is nearly impossible.

Nobody seems to have considered the economic effect of deporting the illegal immigrants already in the US.

Illegal immigrants are individuals who enter or remain in the United States without proper authorization. The reasons for illegal immigration are varied—ranging from economic opportunity and family reunification to fleeing violence or persecution. The scale of the issue is significant, with estimates suggesting millions living without legal status.

Current estimates of the illegal or unauthorized immigrants currently living in the US range from 9 million to 14 million. The Migration Policy Institute puts the number at 13,738,000. According to the same source, 45% have lived in the US for over 20 years and 9,107,000, over 70% of the over 16 population, are currently employed. 530,000 are unemployed, with the rest not in the workforce.

Those who are gainfully employed are contributing to the economy. Assuming that most are earning at the local minimum wage, which ranges from $7.25 per hour in Texas to $16.90 per hour in California, the average earnings per employee is about $26,000 per year. This estimate takes into account how many immigrants are in each state and what the minimum wage is in that state and that the employment is year round. The contribution to the country’s GDP is not just the earnings of the individuals but also the value of the fruits of that labour plus the multiplying factor as the money earned is circulated through the economy. These factors will at least double the contribution, resulting in each worker contributing $50,000 a year.

9 million workers contributing $50,000 per year is $500 billion annually. In other words, if all of the illegal immigrants are deported then the GDP of the US will go down by about $500 billion. To this cost we must add the budget of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) budget which currently stands at $28-29 billion annually.

Even in an economy as large as the US (2025 GDP $30.5 trillion) such a loss will be significant. Deporting all illegal immigrants is clearly not an effective technique to “Make America Great Again”.

The answer has to be to be selective in who is deported and who is awarded Americans US citizenship or provided with a route towards US citizenship or simply permission to stay and work in the US without citizenship.

Selecting which immigrants to be allowed to stay is complex. Some situations, such as someone who has been in the US for a certain time (perhaps 10 years) is working, is paying taxes (hence contributing to the economy) and has no criminal record should clearly be fast tracked towards citizenship. Similarly the so-called “dreamers” who were brought into the US illegally by their parents when they were underage and have lived all their lives in the US should also be fast tracked for citizenship. Illegal immigrants who have a criminal record or are in jail or belong to a criminal organization should be deported as quickly as possible. In between these extremes the issue becomes much more difficult. A point system could be devised and based on that illegal residents could be classed in one of several categories with different treatment.

Of course, those being given US citizenship would have to be given a presidential pardon. For some, this would be tantamount to “rewarding crime”. However, illegal immigration is a victimless crime. If the January 6^th insurgents could be given a pardon, then surely a peaceful group like the immigrants, who are contributing to the US, can also be pardoned.

A more worrying development could be a “moral hazard”. These actions could be perceived as an invitation – if you can sneak into the US and stay clean for 10 years, you get citizenship automatically. However with the border effectively closed and employers made responsible that their employees are legal residents, the recurrence of such immigration can be controlled.

Scary Russian Influence in the Trump Administration

The London Sunday Times published a story “Vladimir Putin’s sway over the US is even worse than you think”. Written by Dominic Lawson, who writes columns for The Sunday Times and the Daily Mail. I.e. he is not a noisy Radio talk-show host spreading populist conspiracy theories, mis-information and dis-information.

I think his article needs wider readership. I have extracted some elements from the article here, with some edits for brevity, (the extracts are printed in itallics). The full article can be found here:

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/vladimir-putins-sway-over-the-us-is-even-worse-than-you-think-c9ck3sst5

About Tulsi Gabbard

Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard posted in the aftermath of the Oval Office fracas between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in February. She Posted: “Zelensky has been trying to drag the United States into a nuclear war with Russia/WW3 for years now”.

When Trump nominated her as director of intelligence, Rossiya-1, the main state TV channel, claimed her as a “comrade”.

But who put the idea in Trump’s mind that she was the woman for the top intelligence job? The name mentioned is George O’Neill Jr. He had promoted Gabbard for many years.

O’Neill had a personal Russian connection. This was Maria Butina, now a member of Putin’s party in the Duma, who lived in Washington until she was convicted in 2018 of being an unregistered agent of the Kremlin. One of her close contacts … was revealed by The Wall Street Journal to be O’Neill, described by the paper as “an outspoken advocate of closer ties with Russia”.

About Darren Beattie

… the acting undersecretary for public diplomacy, Darren Beattie (who married a Russian woman in 2021). Beattie has been intimately involved in the shutting-down of the State Department’s counter foreign information manipulation and interference hub, known as R/Fimi. Russian disinformation was at the heart of R/Fimi’s work, but Beattie told staff that the operation was “severely misaligned” with the Trump administration’s policies. Which is certainly true.

Beattie set up a news operation of his own which was determinedly pro-Kremlin. Two months before Putin launched his “SMO”, Beattie wrote: “Imagine the whining from the Globalist American Empire if Putin ‘invades’ Ukraine … I love it when our national security bureaucrats fail!”

Donald Trump

Where the parts on Tulsi Gabbard and Darren Beattie are largely factual, when it comes to Donald Trump, Lawson is much more interpretative.

Trump, though, is much more motivated by personal greed and perceived slights. He has never forgiven Zelensky for refusing to assist him against Hunter Biden. And Trump has wanted his family’s hotel business to have a foothold in Moscow. Moreover, Russian money kept the Trump Organisation solvent when US and European banks were no longer prepared to lend.

The Killing of Breonna Taylor is Not About Systemic Racism – It’s Much Deeper Than That.

Breonna Taylor, a young black woman, was shot and killed by the police in Louisville, Kentucky. Ms. Taylor was a front-line worker at a hospital and had no police record. Street protests started immediately and all pundits claimed this was another case of systemic racism by the police.

However, many aspects of the case raise questions. Many of these have not been answered in the press.

Starting with the facts. This is made difficult since there are conflicting reports and there are indications that there is a lot of genuine fake news (as opposed to Trump’s “fake news”)

Continue reading “The Killing of Breonna Taylor is Not About Systemic Racism – It’s Much Deeper Than That.”

The Covid-19 Pandemic May be Over Sooner Than You Think

Covid-19 has spread throughout the world and people and governments are going to extraordinary lengths to contain it.

Two of the first nations to experience the pandemic are China and South Korea. In both cases, the number of new casualties has dropped ( in China there have been no new cases at all yesterday – 23-March 2020). In other countries, including Canada and the U.S., the number of new cases is still rising.

We can look at the data for Canada and the U.S. and compare it to South Korea and see if there are similarities and if it can suggest how long the outbreak will last. Continue reading “The Covid-19 Pandemic May be Over Sooner Than You Think”

Trump’s Achievements

No president has divided public opinion more than Donald Trump. Many find him personally obnoxious, irresponsible and harmful to the U.S. and the world. His supporters however, see him as a breath of fresh air who is “making America great again”.

Personally, I am not an admirer of Trump but I think that it is beneficial to play the “devil’s advocate” and try to look at his record in his first two years in as positive light as possible. Continue reading “Trump’s Achievements”

Canada’s 2018 budget: virtue signaling all the way

Canada’s 2018 budget was released on February 26th. It projects an estimated deficit of $17.8 billion for 2018. In subsequent years the budget deficit is expected to decrease, but only to $13 billion.

Canada’s economy is currently strong. Unemployment is at record lows and GDP growth is as high as could be expected.

Conventional Keynesian economics would expect a budget surplus under these conditions. Admittedly the budget deficit is lower than had been expected a year ago due to the strong economy. This was seen as a signal for the Trudeau government to increase spending and introduce new programs.

Continue reading “Canada’s 2018 budget: virtue signaling all the way”

U. S. Tax Reform – Wrong Policies, Wrong Reasons, Wrong Time

The tax reform bills which have recently been passed by the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives potentially introduced significant changes to U.S. tax law. This has been strongly pushed by Donald Trump. Here is a summary of the changes:

Reduce corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%
The highest personal tax rate has been reduced
Inheritance taxes threshold has been raised from $11.2 million $22.4 million
Some tax reductions which affect the middle class, but which expire in 2026

There is no doubt that the U.S. tax system needs reform. Although the corporate tax rate is 35%, in practice, the average tax rate actually paid by U.S. corporations is only 18.7% (by one estimate). The difference is due to all the deductions, exemptions and loopholes embedded in the tax code. Many of these are industry specific and are the result of years of successful lobbying by particular industries. As a result, the tax code introduces distortions in the economy which are not in the best interests of the country.

The tax reform has been sold as a needed stimulus for the economy, which will increase investment, hence increase productivity and lead to increased job creation

The reality is quite different:

No need for a stimulus at this time
Tax cuts for corporations will not flow into productive investment
Changes will raise the deficit by $1.3 trillion over 10 years
Tax cuts for individuals will not spur consumption or investment in the U.S.
Inheritance tax threshold will have a negligible effect

I shall now expand on these in greater detail. Continue reading “U. S. Tax Reform – Wrong Policies, Wrong Reasons, Wrong Time”

Can Raising the Minimum Wage Boost the Economy?

There has been much discussion about raising the minimum wage, with proponents claiming it will improve the lives of the working poor and reduce “inequality” and opponents claiming it will reduce employment, making the poor worse off.

Classical economic theory claims that raising the minimum wage (or instituting it where there is none) will lower employment.

Closer examination suggests that a higher minimum wage will lead to increased inflation, some job losses, increased economic growth and reduced inequality. Continue reading “Can Raising the Minimum Wage Boost the Economy?”

America Does Not Need Smaller Government!

A familiar rallying cry of the Right is a call for smaller government. This is seen as self-evident and a “good thing” in and of itself.

However, if we look at the most successful advanced economies in the world, we see that most have more government spending as a fraction of GDP than the US (data from “Pocket World in Figures, 2015 Edition, The Economist). Continue reading “America Does Not Need Smaller Government!”