Where Will Putin Strike Next?

Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has become more assertive, trying to regain its status as a superpower.

Every time Russia has made a strike, it seems that the West was caught completely by surprise. Clearly, the Western intelligence services (CIA, CSIS, MI6, Surete) have failed spectacularly.

In view of the failure of the Western intelligence services, I shall try to help them by identifying a couple of probable targets for Putin’s next strike.

In most cases, the pattern was similar. A newly independent country has a large Russian minority which starts to clamour for independence. They are supported by Russia, both diplomatically and militarily. The ethnic Russian enclave then starts acting as an independent country. The aim, from Putin’s viewpoint, is to prevent the country from joining either NATO or the EU. In his mind, the Eastern expansion of NATO and the EU presents a threat to Russia and must be halted. Of course, the reality is that these countries join NATO to protect themselves from Russia. In Poland, for example, it is politically incorrect to refer to the time “when Poland was a communist country” – the correct term for that time is “the period of Soviet Occupation”.

First, a history lesson. Russian inspired the following upheavals:

1. Moldova. Became independent in August 1991. Military conflict in March 1992 led to the creation of “Transdniestra” (see map)
2. Georgia. The Russo-Georgian war of 2008 led to the formation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (see map)
3. Ukraine – Russian troops annexed Crimea in 2013 (where Russia broke the 1995 agreement guaranteeing Ukrainian borders).
4. Ukraine – Russian-supported rebels got control of Luhansk and Donensk in 2014 after considerable fighting, leaving over 9000 dead. There is currently a cease-fire in effect which is frequently broken. (see map)
5. Syria – Putin is engaged in Syria, where Russian military are supporting the President, Bashir Assad, against the Islamicists of ISIL and western-backed pro-democracy groups.

Looking at a map, two possible next targets can be seen:

1. A land corridor to Kaliningrad (annexing parts of Belarus and Lithuania)
2. Effective control over all of the Arctic Ocean, including Canada’s Arctic Islands.

Kaliningrad

Kaliningrad was originally Konigsberg, in East Prussia which was part of Germany. After the second World War, East Prussia was divided between the Soviet Union and Poland. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Lithuania became independent, but the “Kaliningrad Enclave” remained part of Russia. Although it has no connection by land to Russia, it is of major importance to Russia as it has the only port which is ice-free all year. It is home to the Russian Baltic fleet.

Clearly, a land corridor linking Russia to Kaliningrad would be of great benefit to Russia. Such a land corridor would have to go through Lithuania and Belarus.

Belarus would provide no obstacle to Putin. The president of Belarus would declare, that “in gratitude to the Russian people, and in the spirit of comradely fraternalism, a 40 km wide strip of Belarus will be ceded to Russia”. Of course, the president’s bank account will suddenly increase by $5 billion – Oh, what the hell – he is a greedy bastard – make it $10 billion, no make it in Euros.

Lithuania will present a different problem. However, there is a sizeable Russian-speaking minority in Lithuania, the result of Lithuania falling into the Russian Empire in the late 18^th century. As Imperialism 101 teaches, the first rule of imperialism is to get your own people to colonise the conquered territory (the word “colony’ comes from the Roman “colonia” where veterans of the Roman legions were settled in different parts of the empire).  This is clearly being done by the Chinese in Tibet today, where ethnic Han Chinese are being settled to “de-Tibetise” the region.

There are tensions between the ethnic Lithuanians and Russians in Lithuania today, which could easily be exploited by Putin. The unrest will be stopped by President Obama (after lengthy negotiations) or President Trump (after a 2 minute chat with his pal Vlad) and they will agree to certain concessions to the Russian-speaking minority and ceding a land corridor between Russia and Kaliningrad. Game, set and match to Putin. Once again the arrogance of the super powers makes decisions about a third country that they have no right to.

Control of the Arctic

Russia has been building up its military presence in the Arctic over the last decade. It has also made extravagant territorial claims (including their exclusive economic zone should include the North Pole). No doubt, inspired by the Chinese success in making the South China Sea a Chinese lake, Putin would like to have total control of the Arctic, including the North-East and North-West passages. For this, he would need to take over some Arctic islands that are currently part of Canada (map: Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=197871).

The scenario could go like this:

• The Russians set up a “research station” on one or more of the Arctic islands without requesting permission.
• A Mountie is sent up there and tells them they need to get permission and gives them the required forms which are filled out. He notices a number of men with AK-47’s and is told they are there for protection from polar bears and orcas
• The Government of Canada refuses permission and the hapless Mountie informs the Russians they have 5 days to leave.
• The Russians refuse to leave so the Canadians send the Mounties, two hockey players and dog. A video appears on YouTube showing the Russian researchers bravely trying to defend themselves from the Canadian onslaught.
• Putin appears on Russian TV and states how appalled he is a the treatment of unarmed Russian scientists and vows to protect them
• Russia sends in three battalions of Spetsnaz
• .. and so the situation escalates

Canada lacks the force to remove the Russians and the US are not willing to risk nuclear war with the Russians over uninhabited islands. So Russia takes over the whole Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Game, set and match to Putin.

Is this possible? I checked to find out what is Canada’s military strength in the Arctic. I was amazed to find that Canada has been strengthening its capabilities.

A paper by Adam Lajeunesse, PhD, “The Canadian Armed Forces in the Arctic: Purpose, Capabilities, and Requirements” May, 2015 documents Canada’s development. Some highlights:

 

• “In December 2008, the Army sent a small force to Churchill for Exercise Northern Bison. A company was deployed to a forward operating base and, in temperatures ranging from -45°C to -57°C, soldiers soon lost their effectiveness”

• A unit “(from the 5th division) was declared at full operating capacity (FOC) in 2014. This status was attained after Exercise Stalwart Goose, when the unit maintained sustainment, communications, and operability over a total of 540 kilometres in four (plus) days”

• “ The military’s permanent northern presence is the Canadian Rangers. A subcomponent of the reserves, the Rangers have long been Canada’s northern experts”

• “The RADARSAT II satellite is the country’s eye in space, monitoring activity and ship movements… Canada plans to launch a constellation of three additional RADARSAT satellites in 2018”.

• “Announced in July 2007, the Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships (AOPS) are intended to increase the Navy’s ability to operate across the Northwest Passage, support other CAF units, and assist OGD in carrying out their mandates”