On September 23rd, 2025, Trump stunned the world with a post on Truth Social which stated: “After seeing the Economic trouble (the war) is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” This statement is a considerable boost to the morale of Ukrainians and their supporters.
Previously his attitude to Ukraine was that “Russia held all the cards”. However, the new statement signifies a retreat by the US from Ukraine.
The key requirement for Ukraine’s success lies in securing an adequate supply of weapons and ammunition. If war is like a game of poker, now is the time for Europe to go “ALL IN”.
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- The Europeans have depleted their stockpiles of weapons and ammunition but retain what they need for their own defence. However, their best defence is to halt the Russians in Ukraine. The countries of Europe (plus Canada) could live with reduced stockpiles until production is ramped up sufficiently.
- The European states are already undergoing a massive increase in defence procurement. However, it takes time for production to ramp up sufficiently, so the question becomes can Ukraine survive without US help for long enough for European materiel to be delivered.
- Buy US weapons which the Europeans don’t produce, in particular the Patriot system, ATACMS missiles and HIMARS systems.
To recapture the invaded territories, Ukraine should:
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- Stabilise the current frontline.
- Continue with the attacks on Russian military targets, oil refineries and crude oil export facilities in Russia with long range missiles and drones
- Focus should be the “southern land bridge” between Crimea and Donbas. Cutting supplies to this area using long range missiles and drones could force a Russian retreat.
- Destroy the Kerch bridge with long range missiles with large warheads (e.g. new UKrainain “Flamingo” missiles), isolating Crimea from any supplies. Potentially leading to its abandonment by
- Liberating Luhansk and Donetsk would be more challenging due to their long border with Russia. However Ukrainian ingenuity should provide solutions.
This strategy might force the Russians to sue for peace, resulting in an independent Ukraine with a strong military deterrent. This process may take 1-2 years.
Alternatively, a prolonged war of attrition could see Russia strengthening its military and eventually breaking through Ukrainian defence lines. Ukraine would then be unable to stop Russia conquering all of Ukraine. This would be followed by executions (see Katyn, 1940), mass deportations (see Crimean Tatars, 1944) and a policy of aggressive Russification. Ukraine, both the state and the culture, would cease to exist.