The latest peace talks in Ukraine collapsed after two hours. The discussion currently focuses on the part of western Donetsk which is currently under Ukrainian control. Russia insists on annexing the area. Some ideas to make this more palatable for the Ukrainians include making the area a demilitarized zone (with the security provided by Russian police and border guards) or a “free trade area” (whatever that means).
These proposals are unacceptable to Ukraine. Zelensky rightly complains that Trump is pushing for Ukraine to make concessions but demands no concessions from Russia.
A concept that has not been raised is the idea of swapping western Donetsk for some of the territory in Zaporizhzia and Kherson oblasts currently under Russian occupation.
This would allow Putin to claim that he has liberated western Donetsk and protected the Russian speakers in that area from the oppression by the “Nazi Kyiv regime”. At the same time, Ukraine regaining territory in the south could be acceptable to the Ukrainian government and its people.
How much land would be returned to Ukraine is obviously a question of negotiation. Ideally the whole of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts currently under occupation should be a starting point. Negotiations on the area could involve issues like equal pre-war populations or equal pre-war economic output. Another issue would be land access between Russia and Crimea – this could be achieved through a rail and road corridor from Russia to Crimea, similar to the connection between Russia and Kaliningrad in the north.
The other major issue in the peace negotiations is the question of security guarantees for Ukraine. There appears to have been some agreement on this, though Russia insists that there should be no NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. This can be circumvented by having EU troops rather than NATO troops in Ukraine, with a preference for troops from the West of EU such as Spain, Portugal or Italy and no military presence from East Russia (AKA United States of America).