A Just End to Ukraine War
Anywhere, the only people who have a right to determine the future of their land are the people who live there. This is the basis of the principle of “self-determination”.
In the case of Ukraine, this principle implies that only the people living there have the right which parts should be Ukraine and which should go to Russia.
The only way to determine this justly is through a plebiscite.
Although some of the self styled “Great Powers” (or should it be “self-deluded”?) feel they can determine the fate of Ukraine, that is only a holdover from the 19th century Age of Empires. In effect this is where “realpolitick” comes in.
In this post, I shall look at the following aspects:
- The Ukrainian Plebiscite of 1991.
- Who should be allowed to vote in a new plebiscite.
- What are the practical concerns about such a plebiscite.
- Results of an analogue.
The Ukrainian Plebiscite of 1991.
“On December 1, 1991, a referendum, initiated by parliament of Ukraine, took place. On August 26, 1991, the parliament adopted the Declaration of Independence of Ukraine, and the referendum was called with a question: “Do you support the Declaration of Independence of Ukraine”. Of registered voters, 84.18% participated in the referendum, and 90.32% of them answered “Yes”.” (Wikipedia”).
Every Oblast had a majority for independence. The highest “for” votes were in Western Ukraine and the lowest in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. In Crimea, 54.19% voted “for”, but the turnout was only 37%. In Lviv Oblast, the vote was 97.6% “for” and the turnout was 93%.
The details for each Oblast can be found here.
It is now over 30 years since this plebiscite. There will be many new voters and others will have changed their minds. There have been allegations that Russian-speaking Ukrainians have been discriminated against or abused. This may be just Russian propaganda or there may be some truth to it. Certainly the Russian-speakers have not been put in concentration camps, imprisoned or executed.
Who should be allowed to vote in a new plebiscite?
All adult Ukrainians should have the vote. The vote should be limited to the Donensk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Kherson and Crimea Oblasts. There are, however, complications. Should the vote be limited to those who lived in Kherson and Zaporizhia before 2022 or Donetsk and Luhansk before 2014? Many Russians have been settled in the occupied territories. For example, the population of Mariupol was almost annihilated during the siege; since then many Russians have been settled there.
Finding those who fit the criteria is not an easy task. Some people stayed put, but many fled the fighting and moved to Western Ukraine or to other countries, whether to the west or to Russia itself. Then there are those who have been forcibly moved to Russia, including many children.
Many Ukrainians have had their papers taken. Proving where they lived is not an easy task.
Nevertheless, it should be possible to identify many who lived there before the invasions. How many would actually vote cannot be determined.
What are the practical concerns about such a plebiscite
Who should administer the plebiscite? Certainly not the Russians- they have already held plebiscites in the occupied areas and the results have been comically unbelievable. The obvious answer is the UN.
A cease fire must be implemented, but it will be impossible to force the armies to withdraw from their current positions. This is by far the biggest obstacle.
Ensuring that there is no coercion or intimidation means that there have to be many UN observers and they must be backed up by significant force, including armoured fighting vehicles and possibly tanks. This force will have to come from neutral countries, though the Russians and Ukrainians will probably disagree which countries these are. Some possibilities include India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria.
The results will probably not be clearcut. Areas of Russian-speakers and Ukrainian speakers are intermixed – there is no line which can be drawn to separate the two. Furthermore, many Russian-speakers consider themselves Ukrainian or may vote for Ukraine because they expect to be better off with the EU financing the restoration of the war damage. If Ukraine does enter the EU, there is the added advantage that Ukrainians will be able to work any where within the EU.
Nevertheless, some sort of separation can be negotiated.
Once the areas are defined, there will have to be some allowance for people to move where they want to be. Many will want to be in Ukraine. A sizeable number will choose Russia, especially those who collaborated with the Russians and are (rightly) afraid of repercussions.
Results of an analogue
The 1919-1920 plebiscite in Upper Silesia is an almost exact analogue. (the description here is a condensed version from Wikipedia).
The Versailles Treaty marked the end of the First World War. One aspect was the breakup of the German, Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires. The treaty attempted to create states peopled by a single nationality while at the same time ensuring that each state was of a viable size.
One result was the re-emergence of Poland as an independent state. However, there were certain difficulties. One of these was that Upper Silesia has a mixed Polish and German population. To partition Upper Silesia, it was decided to hold a plebiscite under the auspices of the Allies since Germany was still under Allied occupation with British and French troops stationed in Upper Silesia. The map below shows the linguistic division from the 1910 German census.
Unfortunately, both sides tried to strengthen their positions. There were Polish insurrections in December 1918, August 1919 and August 2020. The Polish insurrectionists were opposed by the German volunteer “Freikorps”.
The Plebiscite was held March, 1921. Although the population was 53% Polish, 40% German (with the rest mainly bilingual), the result of the plebiscite was 60% for Germany, 40% for Poland. It must be noted that Poland was unstable at the time with several wars: Polish-Soviet War (January 1918- October 1920), Polish-Ukrainian War (November 1918-July 1919) and the Polish-Lithuanian War ( ).
The results of the Plebiscite were not clear cut. In general the cities voted for Germany, the countryside for Poland. The British and French drew up maps showing the possible partitions. The British favoured the Germans, the French favoured the Poles.
Fearing that the British were in the ascendency, there was another Polish uprising which lasted from May 1921 to July 1921. The fighting was fierce, with both sides perpetrating atrocities – rape, torture and killings were carried out. In the end, the Poles had the upper hand, controlling more of the territory.
Unable to agree to a border, the Allies passes the issue to the League of Nations. In October 1921, the new borders were set, roughly along the lines of control of the two sides.
What this shows is that a plebiscite is not an easy solution. The situation in Ukraine is much more difficult than Upper Silesia in 1921.