It is rare that I agree with Donald Trump, but his call for NATO allies to increase their military spending is correct. In particular, Germany is the country which has the least reason not to honour its commitments to reach the 2% of GDP NATO members are supposed to spend.
Trump’s ambivalence over whether the US would honour its commitments under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty is totally unwarranted and music to the ears of the Russians and the Chinese.
Angela Merkel’s speech on May 29th acknowledged that Europe can no longer rely on its allies, naming the US and the UK specifically. This could be interpreted as the first call to set up an EU army.
At the end of the Cold War, there was an expectation of a “peace dividend”, and countries could safely reduce their military expenditure. However, Russia’s aggressive moves, Chinese expansionism, the mess in the Middle East and Islamic terrorism show that the world has become a more dangerous place.
Here is a view of the military strengths of Russia and some of the NATO countries:
| COUNTRY | POPULATION | PERSONEL | RESERVE | TANKS | AFV | AIRCRAFT | SHIPS | BUDGET |
| (106) | ($ 109) | |||||||
| RUSSIA | 142.355 | 766055 | 2485000 | 20216 | 31298 | 3794 | 352 | 44.6 |
| USA | 323.995 | 1400000 | 1100000 | 5884 | 41062 | 13762 | 415 | 587.80 |
| GERMANY | 80.722 | 180000 | 145000 | 543 | 5869 | 698 | 81 | 39.20 |
| FRANCE | 66.838 | 205000 | 195770 | 406 | 6863 | 1305 | 118 | 35.00 |
| BRITAIN | 64.430 | 150000 | 182000 | 249 | 5948 | 856 | 76 | 45.70 |
| CANADA | 35.362 | 95000 | 51000 | 80 | 3004 | 414 | 63 | 15.50 |
| POLAND | 38.523 | 120000 | 515000 | 1065 | 2608 | 465 | 83 | 9.36 |
| LITHUANIA | 2.850 | 15000 | 4260 | 0 | 432 | 10 | 12 | 0.43 |
| LATVIA | 1.965 | 13000 | 11000 | 0 | 250 | 4 | 18 | 0.28 |
| ESTONIA | 1.258 | 3500 | 60000 | 0 | 318 | 6 | 6 | 0.34 |
| GREECE | 10.773 | 180000 | 280000 | 1345 | 4209 | 600 | 115 | 6.54 |
However, increasing German military expenditures implies German “rearmament”. Not surprisingly, this will create apprehension in many European countries, including some current allies. If Germany ever moved to creating its own nuclear arsenal, Putin’s Russia would understandably invade immediately in a pre-emptive strike.
The simple solution to this is for Germany to pay for arming other EU countries. This could have the following advantages:
- More bang for the buck – Latvian troops are less expensive than Germans
- Baltic countries most at risk would be strengthened
- Southern countries (Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal) would benefit economically reducing regional imbalances
- If most of the weaponry was made by German companies, the German economy would benefit.
Here is a short list of possibilities:
- 12 Leopard 2 tanks for each of the three Baltic states
- 12 Eurofighter planes for each of the Baltic states
- Transport aircraft for the Baltic states.
- Funding for 5000 extra personel in each Baltic state
- Maritime patrol ships for Greece, Italy and Spain to counter “refugee” incursions
- Border control personnel in Balkan states and others with a land border with Turkey
Europe’s independent nuclear arsenal consists of France’s “Force de Frappe”. It has around 300 warheads, some of which are deployed on four submarines, the rest can be launched from aircraft. This could be augmented by Germany providing an extra four submarines with French missiles/warheads. These could be operated by other countries, e.g. the Netherlands or Denmark, both of which have a strong naval tradition. Of course, this would contravene the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, but this treaty has been ignored so many times (India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, Iran) that one more breach should not make a difference.